dYdX Chain: End of Season 8 Launch Incentive Analysis

Overview

Chaos Labs is pleased to provide a comprehensive review of the eighth trading season on the dYdX Chain. This analysis encompasses all facets of exchange performance, emphasizing the impact of the Launch Incentive Program.

We are diligently fine-tuning the incentives, ensuring they effectively meet their intended goals. By monitoring a broad spectrum of indicators, we aim to understand the rewards program’s dynamics and outcomes.

Key Stats:

  • dYdX Chain has seen over 9bn in trading volume across 182 live markets.
  • Over 6300 traders were active through season 8.
  • Over $345m of open interest, down 14% from the beginning of the season.
  • The dYdX Chain has grown to approximately $367m USDC in TVL deposited on the exchange at the end of season 8, down 6% from the beginning of the season.

dYdX Chain Trading

The dYdX Chain has seen over $9bn in trading volume across 182 live markets. This is a decrease of 45% compared to the preceding 30-day period.

Open interest has decreased over the season from $403m to $345m, a decrease of 14%.

Open interest has historically fluctuates significantly with market conditions and in line with other metrics this decreased over the end of year holidays.

Traders have paid almost $47m in fees to stakers securing the dYdX Chain since inception. $1.9m of this came in season 8 of the launch incentive program.

dYdX Chain Liquidity

A focus of the program in its current iteration is growing liquidity across all markets to improve the trading experience for users.

Liquidity in the majors, as measured by median liquidity within 100bps, has continued improving, particularly in the more developed markets. Large markets’ now have over $2 000 000 in liquidity within 100bps most of the time.

Season 8 saw a significant further improvement in this metric.

See the table below for liquidity trends in some major markets.

Market Current Preceding 30 day Change
BTC-USD $24,425,302 $17,014,994 30%
ETH-USD $22,001,603 $14,227,501 35%
SOL-USD $9,107,878 $6,603,563 27%
DOGE-USD $3,572,435 $2,217,895 38%
AVAX-USD $3,335,178 $1,824,898 45%
XRP-USD $3,331,774 $1,671,290 50%
ADA-USD $3,269,603 $1,765,181 46%
DOT-USD $2,938,446 $1,515,446 48%
LINK-USD $2,851,633 $1,429,372 50%
LTC-USD $324,666 $505,226 -56%

The impact remains broad across markets, with the long tail increasing dramatically over the season. The only segment to decrease is the $500k-$1m liquidity segment where some liquidity appears to have migrated to the majors and the long tail. Overall liquidity within 1% is up 42% on the season.

Orderbook Liquidity Above $1000k Above $500k Above $250k Above $100k Above $50k Above $10k Total Liquidity ($m)
30 days ago 14 36 50 67 68 92 76m
Now 14 15 51 70 108 141 108m

Funding

Average funding rates in most major markets have stabilized over season 8. This has been relatively in line with funding rate behavior elsewhere, and we continue to take comfort in the convergence to the broader market as a sign of maturation.

Market Average Median Max Min
BTC 22.10% 19.00% 77.85% -19.38%
ETH 19.96% 18.83% 93.62% -40.73%
SOL 20.78% 19.00% 99.54% -223.16%
DOGE 19.00% 18.01% 96.47% -41.72%
XRP 20.11% 16.75% 210.68% -45.33%
LINK 9.98% 8.32% 52.12% -3.61%
ADA 9.91% 7.01% 63.95% -0.22%
AVAX 15.66% 8.27% 62.63% -9.09%
LTC 1.76% 0.11% 31.54% -45.77%
DOT 3.65% 0.22% 45.55% -19.05%

Liquidations

The BTC market experienced the highest volume of liquidations during Season 8 There were $53m in BTC liquidations, followed by $39m ETH liquidations over the season out of a total value liquidated of $113m.

The insurance fund now sits at over $12.4m, bootstrapped predominantly by protocol liquidation fees. Over $1.6m of this came over season 8.

TVL and Deposit Metrics

USDC deposits continue to grow, providing a potential leading indicator to further growth in trading volumes.

At the end of Season 8 approximately $367m USDC was deposited in the app on the dYdX Chain, down 6% from $390 USDC at the start of the season.

Program Efficiency Metrics

Much of the above analysis focuses on aggregate metrics, which can be influenced by a small number of traders. Our analysis of the program also encompasses a bottom-up assessment of the impact it has in growing the number of active traders.

This section provides a deep dive into trader-level metrics to highlight the program’s impact across a range of dimensions. This, in turn, forms the basis for the long-term projections around the program’s impact and efficiency.

Daily and Weekly Active Traders

The number of weekly active traders in season 8 has been fairly consistent, after initially dipping over the end of year break.

Growing the number of average daily and weekly active traders on dYdX is a guiding principle of the Launch Incentive Program, and significant care is taken to ensure that the incentives appeal to a diverse segment of traders.

Week Average Daily Active Weekly Active Average Weekly Volatility
2024-09-02 1107 1728 39.44%
2024-09-09 1131 1976 36.57%
2024-09-16 1190 2040 36.73%
2024-09-23 1272 2175 29.54%
2024-09-30 1348 2441 35.47%
2024-10-07 1306 2242 32.18%
2024-10-14 1449 2481 33.61%
2024-10-21 1543 2716 28.74%
2024-10-28 1644 2899 32.75%
2024-11-04 1958 3475 42.58%
2024-11-11 2277 4225 57.39%
2024-11-18 2365 4176 40.48%
2024-11-25 2287 4435 35.36%
2024-12-02 2555 4527 42.76%
2024-12-09 2310 4657 39.27%
2024-12-16 2328 4320 50.31%
2024-12-23 1431 3817 36.32%
2024-12-30 1648 3306 30.78%
2025-01-06 2014 3789 37.27%
2025-01-13 2265 3949 49.38%
2025-01-20 2196 4085 94.15%

  • Weekly active traders are defined as traders who make at least one trade during a week.

  • Volatility is measured as the variance of minute-by-minute log returns of BTC. This short time frame accurately measures the volatility experienced by dYdX Chain traders in its largest market better than the traditional daily volatility.

Trader Engagement

Trader engagement is defined as how frequently the active user interacts with the dYdX Chain. This is analyzed across a few dimensions. The ratio of average daily active users to weekly active users broadly signals what portion of weekly active traders make a trade on a given day in the week. When this ratio is high, more traders find value in the product and return for this utility.

From a Launch Incentive Program perspective, the incentives should appeal to traders who are likely to become more regular traders and, therefore, likely to be stickier over the long term.

Another measure analyzed is the number of days traders have been active during season 8.

Weekly Trader Breakdown and Retention

Season 8 saw in initial reduction of traders over the end of year break, with mostly existing traders leaving. Most have now returned, however the total is still less than the end of season 7.

The weekly trader retention rate initially dipped due to the end of year holidays over season 8. This has rebounded mostly.

The marginal weekly trader retention rate shows how likely it is for a trader who has traded for a certain number of weeks to trade for one more. This is a slightly different methodology from the retention rate above, as returning traders are treated the same as retained traders here, hence the higher retention numbers.

What is apparent is how much better traders retain the more weeks they have been active. The goal is to get a trader active for at least six weeks, as the data suggests traders are incredibly sticky.

Marginal Weekly Trader Retention Rate

Week Retention Rate
1 57.02%
2 73.99%
3 82.38%
4 88.06%
5 89.97%
6 87.04%
7 91.44%
8 95.44%
9 94.10%
10 94.21%

Summary

There are many aspects contributing to the growth in the dYdX Chain since the Launch Incentive Program began. Attributing growth to specific factors is not an exact science, and we acknowledge the impact market conditions have on trading activity. Given that, here are some highlights from our analysis:

  • Traders spent $1.9m in fees during season 8, and the program will pay out $1.5m in rewards.
  • Over 6300 traders used dYdX Chain during season 8.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation for any security, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory or other services by Chaos Labs. No reference to any specific security constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that security or any additional security. Nothing in this report shall be considered a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any security, future, option, or other financial instrument or offer or provide investment advice or service to any person in any jurisdiction. Nothing contained in this report constitutes investment advice or offers any opinion with respect to the suitability of any security, and the views expressed in this report should not be taken as advice to buy, sell, or hold any security. The information in this report should not be relied upon for investing. In preparing the information in this report, we have not considered any particular investor’s investment needs, objectives, and financial circumstances. This information has no regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs of any specific recipient of this information, and the investments discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Any views expressed in this report were prepared based on the data available when such views were written. Changed or additional information could cause such views to change. All information is subject to possible correction. Information may quickly become unreliable, including market or economic changes.

Throughout the program, Chaos Labs’ role is confined to providing recommendations regarding the allocation of rewards. The actual implementation and distribution of said rewards are subject to the formal approval process of the dYdX Chain governance votes. Any actions pertaining to reward distribution shall only be executed following affirmative governance votes within the dYdX Chain framework.

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